CHICAGO, March 10, 2025 — Menu prices are likely to rise at a faster rate during 2025 than grocery prices will, according to the U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, sustaining the inflation gap that's been blamed for consumers dining out less often.

The latest edition of USDA’s Food Price Index calls for food-away-from-home prices to rise this year by 3.4%, compared with the 3.3% increase projected for packaged foods purchased at supermarkets.

The rate for meals purchased away from home marks a deceleration from the 4.1% pace clocked by USDA in 2024, but the department noted that food prices continue to rise faster than their historical average.

Still, the projected inflation rate would still be significantly below the 7.7% increase in menu prices that was clocked in 2022. 

The price of foods on grocery shelves soared 11.4% that year. But in 2023, menu prices began to outstrip increases in grocery charges by more than a 3:1 ratio. Restaurants hiked their prices by an average of 4.1%, compared with the 1.2% increase that was clocked for supermarket food.

Restaurant chains like Denny’s have blamed a softening of traffic at the end of 2024 in part to the gap between grocery-store and food-away-from-home inflation.  In a conference call with financial analysts, CEO Kelli Valade said consumers were indeed calculating how much they’d save by cooking at home instead of buying ready-to-eat meals.

The USDA expects prices to grow at above-average rates for nonalcoholic beverages, sugar, sweets and fresh fruits, but to hold at near-average rates for dairy products. It lists 10 other food categories that are likely to decline in price. 

The department projected the wholesale price of eggs will rise 82.6% this year, after rising 31% in January. The early-year increase pushed the price paid to egg farmers 183.7% above the level of January 2024.


As Managing Editor for IFMA The Food Away from Home Association, Romeo is responsible for generating the group's news and feature content. He brings more than 40 years of experience in covering restaurants to the position.